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Losing streak calculator
How likely is a run of 5, 8 or 10 losing trades? Enter your win rate and risk per trade to see the odds of each losing streak and the drawdown it would cause.
Why this matters
A strategy that wins 40% of the time with a 1:3 reward to risk is profitable over many trades. It will also, almost certainly, have runs of six, eight or more losses in a row. That is maths, not a broken strategy. Traders who don’t expect it change their rules in the middle of a normal losing run and never find out whether the strategy worked.
How to use the numbers
- Pick a risk per trade where a likely streak (one with a chance above 50%) still leaves the account comfortably inside your limits.
- On a prop firm account, compare the drawdown column with the overall loss limit.
- Decide in advance what you will do after a streak: review the journal, cut size, take a day off. Write it down.
Read more in forex risk management for beginners.
Questions people ask
How many losses in a row is normal?
With a 40% win rate over 100 trades, a run of 7 or 8 losses is more likely than not. Even with a 50% win rate, 5 or 6 in a row is very common.
Should I stop trading after a losing streak?
Not because of the streak alone. Check your journal: if the trades followed the rules, the streak is normal variance. If rules were broken, fix that first. Many traders also cap losses per day, for example two.
Tools and terms for this page
Free tools: Forex position size calculator · Prop firm drawdown calculator
Glossary: Drawdown · Prop firm (funded account)
Results are estimates for education only. Your broker’s figures, spreads and commission decide the real numbers.